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bet hes a busy boy at the moment
Whats the point of identifying a winning scratch off ticket after youve bought it? I have a system for that too. I call it scratching it off. Unless hes going to resell the losing tickets, whats the point?
None of this is science.
Math≠science.
Talks for over an hour and says absolutely nothing dont waste your time
I actually researched this sort of thing for over 30 years put it to the test 2009 very successfully in horseracing unfortunately the racing sites keep changing or stopping access to real time data, got a lot harder, in the last 3 years, websites have real pizzaz and zing no useful winning information easily accessible. I first tried a modification of the well known longshot favourites bias at it has largely been exploited, but I had a success rate out of 300 $1 & $2 bets of 58%, I have worked on it a bit then I got distracted by laying and alleged arbitrage on betfair largely illusory, I won a lot of money with a simple probability, laying on betfair, then I went to bet on British racing and it did not work at all, I am in Australia each market is unique, so I lost most of what I won, I am not that interested in gambling I am purely driven by the science and the need for a source of extra tax free money I do not have to work hard for. I will get back to it again eventually. It is well within the bounds of reason it needs a lot of data mining and hypothesis testing, then start small, however I never bet large, for 2 reasons I have not got a lot of money and large bets skew the odds against you ruin your probabilities. Incidentally it has been mathematically proven there is only 2 card games where you can get an edge, blackjack, and baccarat, casinos have modified the rules to eliminate the edge, poker is a psychological edge not a pure mathematical edge so is a game of luck not skill, there is no point. The only gambling where there remains exploitable edges is sports betting, and horse greyhound and harness racing, it is very difficult though, it takes at least master level statistics and quantitative mathematics to prepare the data mining for, to get the knowledge you need.
Busy now at his original job…
I think he’s got more pressing issues at hand today
Does Tic-tac-toe = Naughts and Crosses?
Yes.
Great talk. Underlined that playing the stock market in the states, especially New York, is a crime. Why no arrests?
I breathed a sigh of relief when I watched it he missed the crucial professors and academics who have mastered gambling a lot are economists(mathematical economists econometricians), and a large number are mathematics and engineering professors. He got the main ideas but either quoted derivative works not the real source or missed entire sources altogether. Lucky he did not let the real cat out of the bag. Not one of the real players has ever put a system on youtube or advertised outside of private academic circles or limited publications, one Professor alone has trained the top 3 richest betting syndicates in the world. He unlike the youtube and contrepeneur spruikers publishes his real betting statistics and slips, no photoshopping, In fact he goes back to the 70s before photoshop existed. You have to dig deep to find the truth, but like they say in the x-files , its out there. Sorry as an addendum his history was spot on it is his sketchy selection of late 20th century and 21 century figures in Professional gambling he seems to be largely completely ignorant about, thank goodness.
Years ago I wrote a program for black jack that used all possible hands from an 8 deck shoe.There was only one situation that I found that differed from the pros. There was one condition where if you took a hit it lowered your win% but my program said you should take the hit because it raised your chance of a push so in the long run you would lose less money in that situation. Bottom line, the house has the advantage.
Id like to know this guys predictions on COVID-19……
Im afraid that Britain has forfeited the right to express credible policy recommendations from academic institutions, following the historically colossally idiotic actions of Neil Ferguson and the Imperial College, which incompetently — supremely incompetently — caused the economic destruction of the world in 2020 due to their hallucinogenic mis-modeling. [Presumably guilt-free] Adam would do well to move to a different country and reaffiliate in order to be taken seriously. Its unfortunate guilt by association, he would do well to disassociate.
Youre welcome!
@The Royal Institution Thanks very much for the information.
Funny you should say that, he actually wrote a book about how pandemics spread that came out in March — he also works at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine and has been working with his colleagues to model the spread of Covid-19 —
Lol obviously this guy rehearsed his talk.. but good talk nevertheless!
Im a bit confused a minute in. How can you steal 19k worth of lotto scratch cards and make 50 quid. This is like winning the reverse lottery. Not sure what the payout ratio is and I forget most of my math pertaining to this, but the odds on that must be huge.
its called value betting some punter r able to recognize a deasl at th tracks, just like i can recognize a deal at the supermarkets.
Ive known of some inveterate gambler to claim that a casino was cheating. Id ask them if you had a government license to engage in wagering that guarantees you a profit over time would you risk you license for short-term gain? They never understand my point….
I bet there are lepers who believe in such (no luck need to win on chance games) type saliva waste mambo. Are people who will never win big no matter how they try,others win even when play by mistake.Its all in the genes,theres no escape.
My family is been gambling for ages,cousins,uncles,bros,sis,grandfathers,fathers…nothing.ON the BIG red at the end of the yr.
chance of someone steeling your unsigned lotto ticket because you bragged of winning and let them see where you put the ticket till you get a ride? 100% for a friend of mine. it was no mystery who took it because the person that had never worked in his pathetic life, suddenly built a giant 3 story house. nothing could be done because he never signed the damn ticket. to make things more disgusting, the guy that had bought the ticket, was a disabled man needing a wheel chair and handicap upgrades to the shitty apartment he had . he had been friends with the thief for about 40 years and was known for helping that low life financially and everyone else he knew. once becoming old having a stroke and becoming disabled, those he helped were few and far between. i do as much as i can but now im now old and useless. sign your tickets when you buy it. it might be a window and trust no one.
No system to winning the lottery, to hit it big you need to be Lucky, thats it.
try to fix your apple lol
So where did the money come from to buy 80 % of the number combinations ?
Out of the winnings
For punters, the Mathematics Of Betting (table of odds and chances) is vital in understanding how to make a profit from sports gambling (investing). However, form is what makes any price value/a good bet.
so when applying for a job and encountering one of those qualification test asking you to state the next number in a sequence its really checking to see if youre a gambler…interesting…
I believe nothing the government has any hand in. Obviously the lottery is in almost all cases a factorial combinatoric in the standard n/k form. In Illinois research weve done shows no one has ever one a big game. The money was always stolen. This goes back to the first time it was presented to the public in lotto format. But we neednt be so mathematically or spade-sharpening.
Lets say Illinois sells 100 million numeric combinations. Then uses the fraudulent ping pong ball choosing theft. Since all entries are computer logged. it is a simple matter tosee which 150 million number combinations were NOT chosen and then with the modern joys of image manipulation or simply by omitting a few key balls from the tumbler and adding some redundancies to fill out the appearance…it becomes impossible to show any actually selected combination.
Of course Illinois has the greatest political and corporate theft in the USA…and excepting random dictator/murderers….in the world…but the principle applies universally..
Although Illinois takes in billions per month last year they announced there could be no pay-outs over $600. for several months…
just like blackjack….how do you count a 10 deck shoe….the lottery….who can afford tobuy every combination when you need 400 million numbers
Interesting, in his book Super System Doyle Brunson got it wrong, he stats that he would always take a bet when the odds favor him. Still a great book!
Theres no way those scratchcard numbers are right. If she stole 19k worth I know for a fact she would not only get 50 pounds. Only if she PAID for those cards could that be right.
It is simply futile to try to come up with some sort of formulation in answer to the question: what is time?
Therefore do not even bother simply change to the question two: how do I e-x-p-e-r-i-e-n-c-e time or what I call time?
All attempts at formulations are futile
Interestingly enough that great philosopher scientist Mel Brooks came up with the following which can be of assistance in what would otherwise be merely a process of chasing ones tail or whining up in some sort of psychological feedback loop:
search youtube for when will then be now
Is that the same way that science took all the risk out of investments a few years back?
How did the peer review of that all go 🙂
Further commentary regarding the horseracing system: Firstly, the 25% aforementioned, if actually attainable, provides an edge of 10% nett offtake from the prizepool. Perhaps 20% edge for a nett of 5% is more sensible when estimating maximum outlay per individual bet, so that losing streaks dont bankrupt you. A good system for determining bet magnitude is to work with a small fixed percentage of your entire capitalisation that is set aside to use as the grubstake — say, 5%. The number of factors to be calculated into the system far exceed what our lecturing friend here puts forward. The horses have to be graded by course; distance; track condition; breeding (therefore Group); age (a bell curve peaking in the middle); performance over a season since last spell both in terms of prizemoney and placings; how long till the next spell is due; whether the horse is a leader, box-seater, mid-pack runner or tailer; a consistent winner (picket fencer), consistent placer, alternator, intermittent or unplaced; and in some of these cases reckoned against the performance pattern including whether the horse performs well early in its season and fades, is consistent throughout the season or slowly improves as the season progresses; jockeys performance record; the starting stall position; weight handicap; the trainer, the breeder, the owner and their respective performance records; and even such tricky considerations as whether the trainer/breeder/owner wants the horse to win the particular race, or may be playing it for favourable handicap in a more lucrative forthcoming race, or warming the horse up for a forthcoming race, etcetera. So in scenarios like this, a high class horse with big winnings running in a race with mediocre prizemoney does not indicate that the horse is almost sure to win. Factoring all these variables into a system formula constitutes a fulltime occupation, so one must be very sure of ones system, if one is to make a serious living out of it.
I came across all this in probability class many years ago. I found you can put the mathematics aside and apply a very simple rule. —
— Gambling is a curious game, the only way to win is not to play.
In gambling even if you do find a way to win it will simply get you banned, winning is forbidden. Simpler and easier to simply flush your money down the toilet or put it in the bin.
I started playing a video poker game at a bar top in NV… put 20 in… won 4 out of 5 hands. Cashed out and put 20 more in… won 4 out of 5 again. Rinsed and repeated probably 7 times… then the machine just straight up shut down. I think at that time video games were just letting people win early to try and get them hooked, so I exploited it. But, even when you find an edge, with the flip of a switch they can shut it off.
Zee-whoa?
Was he referring to Tuomas Sandholms poker research?
Im bored
so its complex beyond comprehension…and no1 has been able to stop laughing yet…well…
Controlling the flip of a coin is childs play
I chunked the twelve-digit number as 610-260-1000-91, but I would have recited it back as individual digits. It helped that there were so many zeros in it.
I had a summer job as a food service cashier for an amusement park, and employees could get a 50% discount by presenting their employee ID card. I had to enter the ten-digit ID number in order to process the discount, and I would take the card, look at the number for a couple of seconds, hand the card back, and then enter the number from memory.
Yeah, but you can also bet on gambling companies ban accounts with the excuse of professional gambler when you win
Gambling is Art not Science so this is oxymoron
I feel so lucky to be born in a time when anybody at all can just press a few buttons and find themselves being mentally enriched by an expert lecturing in any field of theory or knowledge. Quantum physics or gaming theory. Become as knowledgeable as you care to be on any subject at all. Truly remarkable.
Haha. I thought you were going to say … and lose my wages
@Account for Comment Yes, in relation to things like quantum mechanics, the words mentally enrich most certainly do mean nothing. Without the mathematical foundation, all comments on QM are simply handwaving, and meaningless babble, no more mentally enriching than just sitting around on acid making shit up out of thin air.
How convenient YOU keep ignoring the claim that you can become as knowledgeable as you care to be on any subject at all. All your hedging in your latest post does is distract from the fact that you are glossing over this detail.
@Mark Choi Clearly mentally enrich
meant nothing to you. It sound like you only focus on the whether there is an expert or not. It may not create experts in carpentry and machine tools by watching video alone, but many of those professions do watch and recommend those videoes to newcomers as there is many useful knowledges as well as bad ones. For every field there are required practice but many foundations and resources are now available to either start the journey if they wish so or continue the journey if they already knew. Edit: missing word when I find them.
@Account for Comment Not really. As much as one might want to believe that all the necessary tools are available online to be an expert in intellectual fields, like, as here, quantum mechanics, that does not make it so. Especially if one is not some sort of savant, as many of the more esoteric mathematical fields necessary to move forward in QM require significant instruction and correction and testing.
For fields that require non-declarative memory skills, such as carpentry, acting, or fine tool machining, this is simply absurd.
@Mark Choi the key words are mentally enriched and care to be. If you want to be expert, in theory, you can be one by watching a lot of videos and read a tons of books. Most experts do the same thing but they either have an accredition or job in the field. Or you can just a little more knowledgable of a topic you previously know or care about with the wonder of the present.
Ozempic
The only way to win is as
2:00
Not so much difficult as simply unlikely.
The skills required are virtually none. Hand over dough, get ticket, do not lose ticket; hand in ticket if correct numbers.
The likelihood of this to happen, however, is abysmally small.
The mob do, fix the result,have the info,or not play
I cant understand putting your own money on someone elses advice. I had Saint Roi, Al Boum Photo and Chosen Mate on the Friday. I didnt see any tipster put up three winners. Where I fall down is on how to profit from picking winners. Ive taken more out of my paddy power account than Ive put in, but not by much. I gave up on place pots when I realized I was getting more winners easily enough and picking the first two home in my selections, but maybe losing the placepot and not not getting anything. I dont have a system of betting. My 3 tips to live by: 1. Never back with money you cant afford to lose. 2. Dont listen to experts, pick your own horse and know why youve picked it. 3. Always look for value.
All of these theoretical math experts are over thinking this. I win money everyday gambling, its not that hard to do.
Lol the luck was taken out of gambling aeons ago…
Thanks for sharing your maths skills 👍
High risk high wins 🙂
Only an idiot thinks it is possible to apply science to gambling and have it win forever. Gambling does not make new wealth. It only transfers wealth from smart money to dumb money. Once everyone gets wise to the science, everyone begins to use it. LTCM thought that their system was fool proof too right up until the day it blew up.
AS you watch him, you can see that Adam Kucharskis mind is is simply being held back by the limitations of speech speed. His mind seems to be firing of of at light speed. Wow! Good lecture
He needs a speed suit
Simulations are not real observations and therefore Monte Carlo method is not real science.
Its all about GTO but Ill still be happy with Aces 😉
I got kicked off a table in Vegas because I was changing my bet. They took me in the back and explained to me that this was entertainment. They asked if had been entertained.
30 mins in. I havent really learnt anything. This wasnt a very good talk.
Thankyou for posting this fascinating subject matter, very well told and illustrated by statistician Adam Kucharski. Hilarious watching the audience do Rock, Paper, scissors.
Hypothetically, any takers for this one: Bet any amount you like that you will lose this bet…
Its called Math, not Maths. Math is short for Mathematics. So no s needs to be added. You should know this.
Went to casino years ago and we had$100 each to gamble with I walked around looking at what I wanted to play by the time I found it everyone else was out of money so I was winner of the day I walked out with$100 in my pocket and I had to buy lunch for these losers!
Can we get this fella on the coronavirus please…
Are you positive that hes not one of the morons from Britain academia that incompetently set off the destruction of the world, by committing the worst modeling failure in history?
What isnt explained at all is: the guy who figured out how to beat the lottery, who decided it wasnt worth it to just make his living off winning, was already making $600 per day at his job…To put it in perspective, thats almost what my paycheck for 2 weeks work is. If he really wanted to be a good sumaritan, he should have helped lower income families to earn more.
Is it just me or did this speaker talk so fast that its hard to keep up? Like in some TED talks. Less quantity but more quality please! Yet great for this 50% I did learn.
Looking for the tuned-appropriate terminology to illuminate Actuality, ..based on the Mezzanine Research Practice of analytical probability, then the AM-FModulation of probability in potential possibilities for wave-packaging conglomerations of cause-effect pulse integration positioning of Superspin Modulation, could relate Temporal Superposition-point Singularity Holographic Projection Drawing Principle to the QM operation of time duration timing modulation equivalent to hierarchical Roulette.., Evolving change in pulsed resonances of e-Pi-i interference positioning mapping, existence. A comprehensible concept of QM-TIMESPACE Principle Conception.
Thank you sir. Thank you Adam Kucharski sir.
Lol all or nothing strategy to win an election… would have been impressive if this was taped 4 years ago
Oh… hmmm… i guess that means their is a 50/50 chance lightening wont strike the same place twice.
Driving a car is a combination of luck and skill, so who will be first to find an acceptable robot car, and how will it learn to drive.
Its working so well for you that you still need to do Seminars.
Please, what is the word at 16:10 where the students came up with hidden canteeses ??? I guessing its a portable calculator.
computers
If you enjoyed this talk, you should try the book Algorithms to Live By: The Computer Science of Human Decisions (by Brian Christian and Tom Griffiths).
I also do mathematical and quantitative analysis on my wagering algorithm. Thats who I put it. I cant call myself a gambler!!! Im a mathematician
I wonder if this guy saw coronavirus coming.
Appreciate Video! Sorry for chiming in, I am interested in your initial thoughts. Have you researched — Eeyndraw Unthinkable Equalizer (do a search on google)? It is a great one of a kind product for discovering how to use this winning soccer betting system minus the headache. Ive heard some awesome things about it and my work buddy after many years got excellent success with it.
Thats what he wants to TOKE about
whos rewatching the infectious disease guy talk about gambling now since covid 19?
@Miso Mama i said that a while ago.. kek
im rediscovering a lot ot personal interests since this thing really took hold. im wondering what the resulting baby boom is gonna look like statistically now.
Ive been learning a lot about memory and how to chunk data. It was very easy for me to remember that number. I guess this is why this video popped up for me to begin with and also I watch a lot of poker. 😭
So…youre telling me theres a chance…YEAH!
Ive worked in the sports betting industry for 20 year and I’ve met a lot of people that say they want to win money betting sports. As with most things in life you can tell how badly someone wants to achieve a goal by what they are willing to sacrifice to obtain it. Most bettors don’t have the time, energy or discipline to win long term. Paying someone for picks is NOT a way to win long term, you have to invest in yourself and learn how to identify value and find predictive indicators in the market. There’s the art and the science in sports betting. I run a sports betting educational platform focused on teaching bettors everything I’ve learned over the past 20 years. Follow me on IG @TBN_Lefty to learn more on how to join the best sports betting educational community there is.
Bet he is too busy to do this lecture now (March 2020)
Whats the most random thing we can do?
Excellent presentation thank you.
You can tell hes never been in a casino, he thinks chips are made out of plastic. @ 0:24
This is glorious, I have been researching what is a draw in soccer? for a while now, and I think this has helped. Have you heard people talk about — Senonnor Peymma Eradicator — (should be on google have a look )?
It is a smashing exclusive product for becoming a betting master minus the normal expense. Ive heard some awesome things about it and my buddy got great results with it.
This talk doesnt live up to its title. There may be some luck removed from gambling by algorithms, but not a lot.
I was hoping to be able to buy a winning lottery ticket after hearing this talk.
Can we able to predict cricketers score in a match??
I guarantee this guy is real busy at this time and it isnt on the relationship of science and gambling. Wash your hands people and practice social distancing. We have to come together here by being apart.
It was LUCKY that i found this video 😉
You cant take the luck out of games like the Lotto, Set for Life, Euromillions, etc.
Those games are 100% casuality, without any human component which can contain any order of correlation or repeatability. Again, there isnt any non-random component in those games, that can — even minimally — support a forecast.
Playing game of chances is:
1. A little bit: To have some fun;
2. Playing big: for people who need help.
I wonder how many ga members are watching this while in quarantine during pandemic
Indonesian subtitle,please..
Great video and super engaging subject matter! TED Talks look like childs play in comparison.
Accidentally click on this, thankfully.
Good, but horse stuff flawed. May seem like the inconsistent horse has a 50% chance of winning; but (opposite of what Adam seems to suggest) reasons for statistics do matter. Inconsistency (in all probability) directly related to race conditions. Going, race distance, right/left handed, draw, trainer in/out of form, horses recent form, fast/slow pace favouring the front runner or hold up horse etc etc. Therefore, if race conditions suit the horse has far better than 50% chance. In less favourable conditions far less than 50%.
Isnt the whole concept of luck just an integral part of the Gamblers Fallacy?
There was a book in the 1980s called Eudaemonic Pie, about building a computer to beat roulette. I had a copy, but I lost it because I lent it to a friend who died in poverty due to a gambling addiction….
Hmm.
I discovered the bias on Roulette wheel back in 1999. Unfortunately, the casino was paying too much attention to my winning. After winning over $6,000, the next time I went to my wheel of fortune, the wheel was gone. When I asked about it, they told me it was refurbished and relocated. The next time I plated it, I lost over 3,000 until I realized the table had lost its winning personality. So if you discover a biased table,….dont get greedy, theyll notice.
Once you have the “sickness” all that you hear here goes out the window!
One year on Adam failed to predict the enormity of Covid-19.
And where did you show us how science is taking the luck out of gambling?!
Dang. I was expecting some great revelation on betting. You never told us anything we dont already know.
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